I have to admit; this isn’t exactly new news. However, as the race for the Democratic presidential nomination continues, it is becoming more and more evident that it is really only between two candidates now: former Vice President Joe Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. All of the other candidates have either dropped out or, at the moment, are too far behind in national polls to matter much.
In October and November, there were mainly three candidates that mattered, the two mentioned above and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. However, since about mid-December, Warren’s high numbers in the polls have dropped considerably, leaving Sanders plenty of steam to pull ahead of her and work on closing the gap between himself and frontrunner Joe Biden.
And new polls that come out on Wednesday only prove that to even more evident.
A little over a week ago, polls from Monmouth, Morning Consult, and CNN showed Warren trailing Sanders for second place by about 2.5 points. Now, Bernie leads by 7.2 points on average, making him the only other candidate besides Biden to have amassed over 20 percent of the vote.
CNN even gives Bernie the lead at 27 percent, while Biden sits with 24 percent. Warren, on the other hand, has just over half of the percentage that Sanders does.
As you can see by this poll, the trend is that as Bernie’s numbers slowly rise, Biden’s and Warren’s fall, if only in short increments.
But among liberal voters, of which Sanders and Warren are both fighting for, Bernie has even more of an impressive lead, according to CNN.
“Sanders has made gains nearly across the board, clearly pulling away from Warren among liberals (33% back Sanders, while 19% support Warren in the new poll), a group where the two had been running closely through much of the fall. Sanders has also pulled about even with Biden among voters of color (30% for Sanders, 27% for Biden).”
It seems that Warren’s little stunt to pull sexism into the mix didn’t exactly work out as planned. Instead of it blocking sanders from getting ahead much more, it has made to look like a desperate and unforgiving contender. Her accusations about something that couldn’t be proved that had never been brought up before has her putting out fires just about everywhere.
But as the polls also suggest, Warren isn’t the only one beginning to flounder. For Biden, it would seem he has lost much of gains to have the black community on his side. He, just like Hillary in 2016, was supposed to be handed the black democratic vote on a silver platter, and yet, that’s not quite what is happening.
And if Biden can’t win the black vote, then states like South Carolina might not be a sure thing either.
Monmouth’s new poll doesn’t have quite such lousy news for Biden, as he is still in the lead, but the deficit between him and Sanders his dwindling. As you can see, back in August, both Sanders and Warren were tied with 20%. Shortly afterward, she hit her zenith and reached 28% while sanders dropped to 15% but now, things are nearly the opposite. As her position eroded, his steadily soared.
And the net favorability for Warren is even worse. She went from +70 to +46 now. Both Biden (+57 then, +52 now) and Sanders (+47 then, +48 now) on the other hand, have stayed relatively in the same spot since November.
The other poll to show such a clear distinction of two is from Morning Consult. It, like Monmouth’s, shows Biden still leading, but also like Monmouth’s, Sanders is the only one close to his lead.
Now, one important thing to note for many is that these polls don’t actually matter. I mean, we don’t have national primaries, just state ones. So the only polls that should matter are those taken from specific states, such as early voting ones in Iowa and New Hampshire.
And according to those, the differences between Sanders and Warren aren’t nearly as drastic. In Iowa, she trails Sanders by less than a point, and Biden by less than five. New Hampshire isn’t much different.
However, even though national primaries don’t exist, these national polls obviously do. And people do take notice of them, meaning they can affect how some people vote and what happens in the state primaries.
And if these polls say anything, it’s that Warren is just about out.